COMMODITY ANALYSIS
Pepper Pepper prices continue to be well supported on lower stocks but export orders may pick up only if prices fall so as to make it competitive to other origins. Limited supplies and lower stocks continue to provide firm support for black pepper. Availability of pepper continues to be lower in Vietnam, Brazil, India output will fall by 2000 tonnes annually to 48,000 tonnes of adverse weather conditions, according to Spices Board.
India's pepper exports in April-January fell 7 percent on year to 15,700 tonnes. Presently, India and Vietnam are the major supplies of the produce.
Unseasonal rains delayed harvest affecting the yield of pepper vines and is likely slash Indian production this year, but lower stocks and lesser global output will keep prices firm. At Natioinal Commodity and Derivatives Exchange of India April contract finished up 2.89 percent at 23454 after hitting a high of 23839. Pepper May rose from Rs 22860 to Rs 23755 after hitting a high of 23900. Pepper continues to be in bullish territory although profit booking can’t be ruled out on Monday.
Chana Chana has shown weak trends last week on rising arrivals of new crop and weaking trends in other pulses. Chana April contract in NCDEX rose marginally from 2522 to 2528 after hitting a high of 2558 while May contract fell from Rs 2584 to Rs 2573.
Production of chana has fallen from 7.48 mn tonnes a year ago to 7.37 mn tonnes, however, overall pulses production is set for a record high of 16.5 mn tonnes as against an average of 14 mn tonnes in the past few years.
Arrivals of winter-sown crops start in February and is now in full swing. Rubber Rubber prices have recovered from the tsunami impact and gained in the domestic market due to thin supplies. Rubber growers are holding back their produce on hopes of better prices. Tocom rubber futures are tumbled 12 percent last week as largest-ever quake created concerns about the demand for the commodity. Several automobile majors had stopped production in Japan causing concerns about demand for tyres.
Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated that quake hit Japan accounts for seven per cent of the global demand for natural rubber. The crisis in the automobile sector in Japan cannot have a major impact on rubber prices Meanwhile Tokyo rubber futures rebounded sharply towards weekend on supply concerns and hopes of a possible intervention by producing countries to prop up prices.
Tocom Rubber surged on Friday climbing as much as 7.2 percent to 425.5 yen a kilogram ($5,210 a ton) after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest growers, said they may reduce shipments, Bloomberg reported.
Spot prices monitored by India’s Rubber Board has risen from 21,600 per 100 last week to Rs 22,200 after hitting a low of Rs 18,700 levels.
Spot rubber prices in Thailand are quoted higher at Rs 22,692 on tight supplies while SMR-20 grade at Kuala Lumpur is quoted at Rs 20,234.
The benchmark April rubber contract on India's National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) rose 12 percent higher at 23134 while May contract rose from Rs 20789 to Rs 23698. Towards weekend, NMCE futures hit higher circuit levels on fresh buying and short covering.
India's natural rubber production in February rose by 5.8 percent on year to 54,500 tonnes, according to Rubber Board, as farmers increased tapping to cash in on a price rally.
Soybean Soybean futures gained tracking global trends with CBOT soybean gaining on tight supplies due to strong demand. Markets fear that Brazil’s soy corp may be lower than expected while Informa Economics forecasted that acreage will be lesser by 1 million cutting end of year 2012 supplies by 50-60 m bushels.
CBOT May soy rose 2% to $13.62 1/2; Nov soy gain 2.4% to $13.34 a bushel in the weekend trading.
At NCDEX April Soybean rose from Rs 2349 to Rs 2376 on week while May contract rose from Rs 2385 to Rs 2407. India imported 549,881 tonnes of vegetable oils in February, down by about a fifth from a year ago, trade data released on Monday showed, a fall largely due to higher crushing of domestic oilseeds following a normal monsoon.
India's rapeseed output in 2011 could jump 16.1 percent to 6.85 million tonnes, helped by favourable weather conditions, The north-western state of Rajasthan is the biggest producer of rapeseed in the country. Meanwhile palm oil prices are climbing up globally in futures and spot markets on active physical buying as impact of nuclear-crisis in Japan eased. April Soyoil at NCDEX rose from Rs 611.65 to Rs 620.60 while May contract rose from RS 617.10 to Rs 627.45.
Cotton India cotton prices continue to be well supported on supply concerns as arrivals season draws to a close. As the season draws to a close, there will be no fresh cotton supply for next seven months and the opening stocks is also very low, all these factors will put a pressure on its prices. Globally, cotton futures had fallen in the beginning of the week by 9.7% before climbing back as concerns regarding the Japan quake impact eased.
Cotton for May delivery surged by the exchange limit of 7 cents, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $1.9912 a pound at ICE Futures U.S. in New York on Friday. The price declined 2.8 percent this week. The fiber reached a record $2.197 on March 7 as global demand outstripped supplies. In India, Kapas April futures at NCDEX rose from Rs 1155 to Rs 1186 after hitting a high of 1194.50
The dollar was down 1.6 percent this week against a basket of six major currencies, enhancing the appeal of goods in the U.S., the world’s biggest cotton shipper.
The closing stock of cotton was 2.75 million bales, India Textile Ministry said in its projections, much lower than its stock estimate of 4.05 million bales in January.
Cotton arrivals in Indian spot markets till March 13 in the 2010/11 season edged up by 1.65 percent on year at 24.5 million bales of 170 kg each, lower than earlier projections. In India, the price of the most common Shankar-6 variety is quoted at 59,000 rupees per candy of 356 kg each, the Cotton Association of India data showed.
The latest estimate of the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) put India's output from the harvest at 31.2 million bales in 2010/11, lower than the previous estimate of 32.9 million bales, but still 5.8 percent higher than the year-ago period which was hit by drought. On Feb 10, the prices had touched a record high of 60,000 rupees per candy.
Sugar
Globally sugar prices have tumbled from $850 levels in January to $675 per tonne while at NCDEX April contract has fallen from Rs 2816 to Rs 2776 while May contract has fallen from Rs 2886 to Rs 2850 last week. Indian sugar exporters are finding the going tough with global prices plummeting making it unviable to export the commodity. They have blamed government indecision on allowing export of 500,000 tonnes of sugar for the present crisis.
Sugar prices have come down sharply in the recent months. At ICE Raw Sugar futures for May delivery fell 4 percent on week to 27.71 cent. The commodity reached a 30.
CBOT May soy rose 2% to $13.62 1/2; Nov soy gain 2.4% to $13.34 a bushel in the weekend trading.
At NCDEX April Soybean rose from Rs 2349 to Rs 2376 on week while May contract rose from Rs 2385 to Rs 2407. India imported 549,881 tonnes of vegetable oils in February, down by about a fifth from a year ago, trade data released on Monday showed, a fall largely due to higher crushing of domestic oilseeds following a normal monsoon.
India's rapeseed output in 2011 could jump 16.1 percent to 6.85 million tonnes, helped by favourable weather conditions, The north-western state of Rajasthan is the biggest producer of rapeseed in the country. Meanwhile palm oil prices are climbing up globally in futures and spot markets on active physical buying as impact of nuclear-crisis in Japan eased. April Soyoil at NCDEX rose from Rs 611.65 to Rs 620.60 while May contract rose from RS 617.10 to Rs 627.45.
Cotton India cotton prices continue to be well supported on supply concerns as arrivals season draws to a close. As the season draws to a close, there will be no fresh cotton supply for next seven months and the opening stocks is also very low, all these factors will put a pressure on its prices. Globally, cotton futures had fallen in the beginning of the week by 9.7% before climbing back as concerns regarding the Japan quake impact eased.
Cotton for May delivery surged by the exchange limit of 7 cents, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $1.9912 a pound at ICE Futures U.S. in New York on Friday. The price declined 2.8 percent this week. The fiber reached a record $2.197 on March 7 as global demand outstripped supplies. In India, Kapas April futures at NCDEX rose from Rs 1155 to Rs 1186 after hitting a high of 1194.50
The dollar was down 1.6 percent this week against a basket of six major currencies, enhancing the appeal of goods in the U.S., the world’s biggest cotton shipper.
The closing stock of cotton was 2.75 million bales, India Textile Ministry said in its projections, much lower than its stock estimate of 4.05 million bales in January.
Cotton arrivals in Indian spot markets till March 13 in the 2010/11 season edged up by 1.65 percent on year at 24.5 million bales of 170 kg each, lower than earlier projections. In India, the price of the most common Shankar-6 variety is quoted at 59,000 rupees per candy of 356 kg each, the Cotton Association of India data showed.
The latest estimate of the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) put India's output from the harvest at 31.2 million bales in 2010/11, lower than the previous estimate of 32.9 million bales, but still 5.8 percent higher than the year-ago period which was hit by drought. On Feb 10, the prices had touched a record high of 60,000 rupees per candy.
Sugar
Globally sugar prices have tumbled from $850 levels in January to $675 per tonne while at NCDEX April contract has fallen from Rs 2816 to Rs 2776 while May contract has fallen from Rs 2886 to Rs 2850 last week. Indian sugar exporters are finding the going tough with global prices plummeting making it unviable to export the commodity. They have blamed government indecision on allowing export of 500,000 tonnes of sugar for the present crisis.
Sugar prices have come down sharply in the recent months. At ICE Raw Sugar futures for May delivery fell 4 percent on week to 27.71 cent. The commodity reached a 30.
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